RESEARCH

U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Hélène Rey
2020
U.S. monetary policy shocks induce comovements in the international financial variables that characterize the “Global Financial Cycle.” A single global factor that explains an important share of the variation of risky asset prices around the world decreases significantly after a U.S. monetary tightening. Monetary contractions in the US lead to significant deleveraging of global financial intermediaries, a decline in the provision of domestic credit globally, strong retrenchments of international credit flows, and tightening of foreign financial conditions. Countries with floating exchange rate regimes are subject to similar financial spillovers.
Published at: The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 87, Issue 6, November 2020, Pages 2754–2776, Click here to view
The Global Financial Cycle after Lehman
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino Hélène Rey
May 2020
Did the effect of US monetary policy on the global financial cycle change after the crisis? We analyze the international transmission of the Fed's policy shocks since 2009. We find similar effects for the policies that act mostly on the short end of the US yield curve. But there is evidence of potent information effects active at the long end. Lower ten-year Treasury yields are associated with weaker global financial activity and flight to safety. The information content of the VIX may have changed substantially since the crisis.
Published at: Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Hélène Rey (2020), AEA Papers & Proceedings, vol. 110, pp. 523-528   Click here to view.




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